Oduber and the MEP: Our Common Enemy

Looks like the MEP's refusal to conduct an honest, competent, and transparent investigation into Natalee's disappearance has caused the loss of nearly 4 million USD so far - and that is the conservative number from what I can gather from this study! Apparently it may be twice this much...

I can't help but wonder: are Arubans that easy to fool, that cowardly, or that complacent? Maybe a little of all of the above?

Tourism Losses in Aruba to December 31, 2006.

Changes in Aruba Tourism by Month
2004-2006
(in total visitors per month, to nearest hundred)
Month	2004 (1)	2005	% Change	2006	%Change
Jan	57,300	65,700 (1)	+1.15	58,900 (4)	-10.30
Feb	61,600	59,600 (1)	-3.25	53,500 (4)	-10.30
Mar	58,300	65,400 (1)	+1.22	58,700 (4)	-10.30
Apr	67,000	65,900 (1)	-1.64	59,100 (4)	-10.30
May	57,200	25,600 (1)	-44.75	23,300 (4)	-9.00
Jun	53,900	48,800 (6)	-9.45	39,100 (2)	-8.80
Jul	69,900	67,500 (5)	-3.50	61,400 (7)	-9.00
Aug	68,300	65,900 (5)	-3.50	60,000 (7)	-9.00
Sep	52,600	50,800 (5)	-3.50	46,200 (7)	-9.00
Oct	62,500	37,500 (3)	-40.00	34,100 (7)	-9.00
Nov	58,600	52,300 (8)	-10.72	47,600 (7)	-9.00
Dec	61,100	54,600 (8)	-10.72	49,700 (7)	-9.00
Totals	728,300	659,600		591,600
% change 2004-2005: -9.44% (-68,700 tourists from 2004)
% change 2005-2006: -10.30% (-68,000 additional tourists from 2005)
Loss of revenue, 2005 (est): $1,793,000
Loss of revenue, 2006 (est): $1,774,800
Loss of revenue since June 1, 2005: $3,567,800 from hotel and lodging industry alone
Loss of jobs, 2005 (est): 78
Loss of jobs, 2006 (est): 80
Loss of jobs since June 1, 2005: 158
( 1 ) 2004 data provided by Caribbean Tourism Association.
( 2 ) -8.8% loss reported by Central Bank of Aruba.
( 3 ) 40% loss from previous October as reported by Central Bank of Aruba.
( 4 ) 10.3% loss first half of 2006 as reported by Central Bureau of Statistics / Central Bank of Aruba
( 5 ) 3.5% loss from 3rd quarter 2004 as reported by AM Digital, 10/28/05.
( 6 ) projected losses based on average changes in first quarter 2005.
( 7 ) projected losses based on average changes from June 2005 to June 2006 (last available data).
( 8 ) projected losses based on average changes from previous months of 2005.

Methodology:

Assumed: Normal average occupancy rate of hotels in Aruba is 82.2% (Jan 2004 – May 2005 monthly average according to the Central Bank of Aruba)

Assumed: 21% of Aruba’s tourists on average arrive by airline flight as opposed to by cruise ship. This indicates a minimal loss of cruise line passengers at the rate of airline passenger losses / 5. For example, a 20% drop in airline passengers alone suggests an accompanying loss to cruise line passengers of 5% (assuming the rate of loss is equal; it may be higher or lower).

Note that anecdotal evidence from Aruba suggests that the overall loss may be as much as twice as great as this study indicates. Anecdotal evidence from Aruba also suggests that the reporting authorities of Aruba have included in their own numbers only those hotels that remain at least 70% full – thus artificially inflating their figures.

Note that 2005 data was obtained by reducing 2004 figures in the same month according to reports from those sources listed above. Where monthly reports from Aruban sources were missing, the nearest month’s figures were carried over (either positive or negative).

Note that, in an effort to obtain fair and impartial results, every effort was made to err in favor of Aruba.

Note that loss of jobs assumes that the average Aruban earns $21,800 USD a year (source: CIA Factbook on Aruba, 2004). This number was obtained on the assumption that the easiest way for a hotel to minimize its loss is by reducing payroll, and thus yearly losses divided by average assumed income yields quoted results.

Note that this study only includes losses from hotel and lodging interests in Aruba.

Note that neither the Aruba Tourism Authority, the Aruba Hotel and Tourism Association, nor the Central Bank of Aruba has released complete tourism figures since May 2005 – the month Natalee Holloway disappeared.